Austin Urges Renewed Dialogue to Prevent US-China Conflict Amid Rising Asia-Pacific Tensions

Lloyd Austin: War with China Neither Imminent Nor Unavoidable, Calls for Continued Talks

U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin addressed a gathering of top security officials on Saturday, asserting that war with China was neither imminent nor unavoidable despite escalating tensions in the Asia-Pacific region. He emphasized the necessity of renewed dialogue between him and his Chinese counterpart to prevent “miscalculations and misunderstandings.”

Austin's remarks at the Shangri-La defense forum in Singapore followed a more than hour-long meeting with Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun, marking the first in-person interaction between the top defense officials since military contacts between the U.S. and China were severed in 2022 after then-U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, which had angered Beijing.

During the meeting, both sides maintained their established positions on Taiwan—claimed by China, which has not ruled out using force to take it—and on China’s expansive claims in the South China Sea, which have led to confrontations with other regional nations, notably the Philippines. While not divulging the specifics of their conversation, Austin highlighted the importance of their renewed communication.

“As long as we’re talking, we can identify troublesome issues and establish guardrails to prevent misperceptions and miscalculations that could spiral out of control,” Austin said. “You can only do that if you are talking.”

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., addressing the same forum on Friday night, stressed the gravity of the situation. He warned that if a Filipino were killed in a confrontation with China in the South China Sea, it would be “very, very close to what we define as an act of war,” prompting a corresponding response. Marcos expressed confidence that the Philippines' treaty partners, including the U.S., would share this standard.

Austin praised Marcos for standing up for the Philippines' sovereign rights under international law but avoided commenting on a hypothetical U.S. response if a Filipino were killed in such a confrontation. He reaffirmed the U.S.'s "ironclad" commitment to the Philippines as a treaty partner while underscoring the importance of dialogue with China.

“There are many things that can happen at sea or in the air,” he noted. “Our goal is to ensure that we don’t allow things to spiral out of control unnecessarily.”

Chinese Defense Minister Dong was scheduled to address the conference on Sunday morning. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, seeking more air defense systems from Western allies, arrived unannounced on Saturday evening to participate in a panel discussion on Sunday.

China has been rapidly expanding its navy and asserting its claims to almost the entire South China Sea. Australian Deputy Prime Minister and Defense Minister Richard Marles highlighted incidents where Chinese ships and planes had engaged aggressively with Philippine and Australian vessels.

“In the face of these multiple sources of tension, it’s imperative that every country helps manage increasing strategic risk,” Marles said. Japanese Defense Minister Minoru Kihara also voiced concerns about China's military activities near Japan, including joint exercises with Russia.

To counter Chinese actions, the U.S. has intensified military exercises in the region with its allies to emphasize a “free and open Indo-Pacific,” ensuring freedom of navigation through contested waters like the Taiwan Strait.

Chinese Senior Col. Cao Yanzhong questioned whether the U.S. was attempting to create an Asian version of NATO with its partnerships and alliances, suggesting this could lead to conflict with China. He linked NATO's expansion to the Ukraine crisis, which President Vladimir Putin used to justify his invasion of Ukraine.

Austin rejected this interpretation, stating, “The Ukraine crisis was caused because Putin decided to unlawfully invade his neighbor.” He clarified that the U.S. is cooperating with “like-minded countries with similar values,” not creating a NATO-type alliance.

Indonesian academic Dewi Fortuna Anwar expressed regional concerns over potential U.S.-China cooperation or conflict, fearing smaller nations could suffer.

Austin reiterated that many issues were best resolved through dialogue and reassured that the U.S. would continue protecting the rights of nations in the region and their access to exclusive economic zones.

“War or a fight with China is neither imminent nor unavoidable,” Austin said. “Great power leaders must work together to reduce opportunities for miscalculation and misunderstandings. Not every conversation will be pleasant, but it is vital to keep talking and support our allies and partners.”