End of an Era: South Africa's ANC Faces Coalition Government After Historic Election Loss

South Africa's ANC Loses Majority, Faces Uncertain Future Amid Rising Opposition

Official results from South Africa's election are expected to confirm on Sunday the end of the African National Congress' (ANC) 30 years of majority rule, initiating a race to form a new ruling coalition.

Voters, frustrated by joblessness, inequality, and power shortages, cut support for the ANC—Nelson Mandela's former liberation movement—to 40% in Wednesday's election, down from 57.5% in the 2019 parliamentary vote.

This outcome means the ANC must now share power, likely with a significant political rival, marking an unprecedented scenario since the end of white minority rule in 1994.

Following the official announcement of results expected on Sunday evening, political parties will have two weeks to negotiate a coalition before a new parliament convenes to elect a president, who is likely to still come from the ANC as the largest party.

"The ANC is committed to forming a government that reflects the will of the people, is stable, and can govern effectively," said Fikile Mbalula, the party's secretary general, at a press briefing on Sunday. He added that the ANC would engage in discussions both internally and with other parties to create national and provincial governments "that reflect the will of the people and can move the country forward."

However, Mbalula emphasized that the ANC would not succumb to demands from other parties for incumbent President Cyril Ramaphosa to step down as a condition for forming a coalition. "That is a no-go area," he stated.

The ANC's poor performance has sparked speculation about Ramaphosa's future, either due to potential coalition partner demands or an internal leadership challenge.

Counting from the May 29 poll was nearly complete on Sunday morning, with results from 99.9% of polling stations.

Before Wednesday, the ANC had won every national election decisively since 1994, but over the last decade, its support has waned as the economy stagnated, unemployment rose, and infrastructure deteriorated.

The main opposition party, the Democratic Alliance (DA), received 21.8% of votes in last week's election. uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK), a new party led by former President Jacob Zuma, secured 14.6%, significantly impacting the ANC. The far-left Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), led by former ANC youth leader Julius Malema, garnered 9.5%.

Both the DA and the small Inkatha Freedom Party said their leadership would meet separately on Sunday to discuss their next steps. "The DA is awaiting the final results. Once certified, we will assess the situation, and the party structures will decide on the next steps," said DA spokesperson Charity McCord. She added that no coalition talks had yet commenced with any party.

Mbalula announced that the ANC's leadership would meet on Tuesday to discuss the path forward. Despite exceeding expectations, MK said it was considering challenging the results in court.